Suchergebnisse

"As an inherent part of today's political communication, opinion polls supposedly also have a considerable impact on voters (and in turn on election results). However, research in this field should analyze the necessary conditions for poll effects in more detail in order to understand these postulated impacts. Opinion polls can only affect voters if voters consciously take notice of them and if they are perceived as being credible. The results from examining two opinion polls from the election years 2009 and 2013 show that in 2009, but especially in 2013, opinion polls were consciously registered by many, yet not all, people in Germany. In terms of credibility, however, opinions were more diverse. Political interest was identified as having the strongest impact on whether people consciously took notice of opinion polls or not. Moreover, the consumption of public television news as well as a higher level of formal education has a positive influence. The election year 2013 also shows some party political effects. Trying to identify perceived credibility was less successful. Only supporters of the CDU and CSU found the poll results more credible in both years. In addition, personality traits show effects for 2009." (author's abstract)

"Demoskopie ist kein reiner Messvorgang, sondern ein umfangreicher Konstruktionsprozess. Was nehmen Bürgerinnen und Bürger eigentlich wahr - die demoskopischen Zahlen oder die darauf aufbauende Berichterstattung? Und welche Wirkung entfalten die Meinungsumfragen mit Blick auf Wahlentscheidungen?" (Autorenreferat)

Although Hesse had left the brief interregnum of so-called 'Hessian peculiarities' after the 2009 state elections and returned to a bloc-based black-yellow government of CDU and FDP, the legislative term was nevertheless turbulent. Roland Koch resigned after ten years of office as Prime Minister and Volker Bouffer followed him. The 2013 state elections coincided with the federal elections. State-specific aspects were consequently rather rare in the campaign. However, coalition issues are always particularly gripping in Hesse. Despite the fact that pre-electoral alliances were in line with the traditional patterns - red-green, black-yellow - the parties were open for other alternatives. On Election Day, the Christian Democrats came in first. The Social Democrats increased their vote share by seven percentage points after their disastrous 2009 result. The Greens received 11.1 percent, FDP and the Left Party just over five. Turnout was 73.2 percent, up by 12.2 percentage points - a direct result of the merger of the election dates. The outcome of the election gave none of the desired coalitions a majority, so there was a long period of exploratory talks. Ultimately, the Christian Democrats decided to offer the Greens coalition negotiations. These were concluded swiftly. In January 2014 Bouffer was confirmed in his office, now heading a black-green government. Adapted from the source document.